بررسی عوامل تاثیرگذار بر وقوع و تشدید بحران‌های اقتصادی در فضای جغرافیایی ایران

Extended Abstract



1. Introduction

The spatial distribution and operating locations of an economy’s components, along with the spatial flow of goods and population, are referred to as the space economy. Izard states that the theory of the space economy deals with the spatial configuration of economic activities by considering the geographical distribution of data and inputs, as well as fluctuations in costs and prices (Johnston et al., 1998). Consequently, the discovery, understanding, and recognition of spatial patterns in economic studies lead to a better comprehension of phenomena and the relationships, actions, and interactions among them at the spatial level. Economic crises are among the most significant challenges faced by governments. Governments are always striving to implement their policies in such a way that they do not fall into the grip of economic crises. In this context, the term "economic crisis" is used to describe a situation in which a large part of the assets loses its value. In fact, the onset of an economic recession and an unemployment crisis can be counted among the inevitable consequences of these crises (Soheyli and Mirzaei Rashno, 2013). Therefore, given that economic crises can have profound effects on a country, one of the policymakers' concerns is to adopt measures that accelerate the exit from the crisis [Salarvandian and Samsami, 2022]. In this regard, the present study seeks to examine the factors influencing the occurrence and intensification of economic crises within the geographical space of Iran.

2. Research Methodology

The present study is an applied research conducted using descriptive and analytical methods. To this end, in the first stage, using the grounded theory approach along with in-depth interviews, group discussions, and data analysis, the factors influencing the occurrence and intensification of economic crises in Iran were evaluated and analyzed by 14 economists. Based on this evaluation, economic instability, the role of government in the economy, international shocks, the lack of development in information technology, and deficiencies in moral, cultural, and social values were identified as the most significant indicators affecting Iran's economic crises. After the indicators were determined, the corresponding sub-indicators for each indicator were identified. In the second stage, weighting of the extracted indicators and sub-indicators was performed using the Delphi technique by 30 specialists and experts in the field of economics. Finally, the indicators and sub-indicators were assessed and analyzed through the Chang Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHPCHANG).

3. Results and discussion

The research findings indicate that the criterion of international shocks, with a weight of 0.541, ranked first; the lack of development in information technology, with a weight of 0.234, ranked second; the role of government in the economy, with a weight of 0.129, ranked third; economic instability, with a weight of 0.091, ranked fourth; and the decline in moral, cultural values, and social capital, with a weight of 0.00, ranked last among the factors affecting the occurrence and intensification of economic crises in geographical space of Iran. After calculating the weights of the main criteria, the next step was to determine the weights of the sub-criteria. The pairwise comparison of the sub-criteria for economic instability shows that the sub-criterion of negative economic growth, with a weight of 0.2958, ranked first, while the sub-criterion of a single-product economy, with a weight of 0.0418, ranked last.Similarly, the pairwise comparison of the sub-criteria for the role of government in the economy indicates that the sub-criterion of government debt to the central bank and other banks, with a weight of 0.2985, ranked first, whereas printing money without backing, with a weight of 0.0338, ranked last.

Furthermore, the pairwise comparison of the sub-criteria for international shocks reveals that the sub-criterion of exchange rate fluctuations, with a weight of 0.3393, ranked first, while the sub-criterion of the outbreak and pandemic of the coronavirus, with a weight of 0.0069, ranked last. The results of the pairwise comparison for the lack of development in information technology show that the sub-criterion of dependency on imported knowledge and technology, with a weight of 0.304, ranked first. Additionally, among the sub-criteria for the decline in moral, cultural values, and social capital, the sub-criterion of the use of smuggled and counterfeit goods, with a weight of 0.334, ranked first.

4. Conclusion

According to the research findings, although the criterion of international shocks secured the top ranking among the factors affecting the occurrence of economic crises, the weight of the sub-criteria related to the role of government in the economy (namely, government debt to the central bank and other banks with a weight of 0.2985 and state-owned economic structure with a weight of 0.2909) indicates that this criterion has also played a significant role in triggering economic crises in Iran. On the other hand, even though the criterion of the decline in moral, cultural values, and social capital had the least impact on these crises, the sub-criterion of the use of smuggled and counterfeit goods (with a weight of 0.334), which falls under this criterion, has had an important influence on the occurrence of economic crises.