عوامل مؤثر بر تاب‌‌آوری سکونتگاه‌‌های روستایی شهرستان ماهنشان در برابر خشکسالی

Extended Abstract



1. Introduction

Climate change is one of the fundamental challenges facing humanity, and drought, especially in arid and semi-arid regions, as the most important and costly climate hazard, has widespread impacts on climate, ecosystems, and livelihoods. This phenomenon has caused financial and psychological pressures on farmers and changes in the management of agricultural resources. For this reason, drought management is considered a priority in global policymaking. The severity of the effects of climate anomalies depends on the level of resilience of communities and varies from region to region. Theories of disaster management and sustainable development emphasize the creation of resilient communities, because resilience is a key factor in achieving sustainability. Disaster mitigation programs should focus on strengthening the resilience of local communities, because the main challenge is the inability to cope with unpredictable losses. Identifying factors that improve resilience to climate change, such as floods and droughts, is essential for livelihood systems to adapt to local and global changes. Iran has exposed a large population to environmental hazards due to its high accident rate. Increasing the resilience of local communities and the ability to recover quickly are priorities for the country's spatial planning. Zanjan province has faced reduced rainfall and drought, which have had severe impacts on agriculture and the population of rural settlements. This study examines the relationship between resilience and economic, social, and environmental-physical factors and identifies the most important factors affecting rural resilience to drought.



2. Research Methodology

The present study is applied in terms of type and descriptive-analytical in nature and method. The data collection method was library and field and was collected through a researcher-made questionnaire. The questionnaires were analyzed in Excell, Arc GIS, SPSS and GeoDa software. Experts' opinions were used to determine the validity of the questionnaire, and the reliability of the questionnaire was obtained using Cronbach's alpha coefficient (0.672). To analyze the desirability of the resilience of rural settlements, a one-sample t-test was used, and to evaluate the role of three dimensions (economic, social and environmental-physical) on the resilience of rural settlements against drought, a Moran's correlation test was used. In the first stage, 30 villages were selected as a random sample and 347 households were selected as the sample size. Based on the SPI index and data received from the Meteorological Organization of Zanjan Province, the drought situation was studied from 1993 to 2023.

3. Results and discussion

An examination of the personal characteristics of the respondents shows that 166 of the respondents are female and 181 are male. 58 people are in the age group of 15-25, 110 are 25-35, 97 are 35-45, 32 are 45-55, 42 are 55-65, and 8 are over 65. An examination of the educational status showed that 112 people are illiterate, 20 are school-aged, 83 are elementary school-aged, 68 are middle school-aged, 40 have a diploma, 18 have a bachelor's degree, 2 have a master's degree, and 4 have a seminary education. An examination of the marital status of the respondents also showed that 92 are single and 255 are married. The average resilience index is 2.20%, the lowest value is related to Sahand Olya village with 2.01 and the highest value is related to Pari village with 2.5%.

T-test test to analyze the desirability of resilience dimensions

In this regard, a one-sample t-test was used and it was determined that the status of all dimensions was assessed as undesirable and the economic dimension was identified as the most undesirable dimension.

Evaluation of the role of three dimensions on the resilience of rural settlements against drought

Furthermore, using GeoDa software, the role of three dimensions on the resilience of rural settlements against drought was evaluated using Moran's correlation test.

The economic indicators of dependency ratio, employment rate, unemployment percentage, diversity of economic activities and mechanization coefficient, Social indicators of population growth 1966-2016, annual population growth rate, household size, youth population percentage and gross enrollment ratio for primary, Environmental-physical indicators of percentage of unauthorized wells, percentage of newly built housing, title deed, and development have led to improving the level of resilience of rural settlements against drought.

4. Conclusion

Analysis of the resilience status of rural settlements showed that all dimensions are in an unfavorable state. Examining the role of economic, social, and environmental-physical dimensions in resilience, using Moran's correlation test, showed:

Irrigated agriculture plays an important role in increasing the economic resilience of villages by strengthening infrastructure and livestock as a source of income. However, dependence on unstable markets has reduced the impact of the agricultural commercialization index. To strengthen resilience, it is necessary to diversify products and support small farmers. Mechanization should also be applied by considering social, economic, and environmental conditions.

The household size plays a key role in increasing the social resilience of villages by strengthening social relations and resource management. Primary education coverage contributes to resilience by improving human capital and reducing inequalities. The impact of population growth depends on the management of resources and economic opportunities and becomes challenging if mismanaged. Also, persons per room density improves social, economic, and environmental resilience by enhancing social interactions and resource efficiency.

authorized agricultural wells with water resource management enhance environmental-physical resilience, but weakly built housing has a lesser impact. Also, the impact of slope on resilience depends on management measures that can mitigate its negative effects.