تحلیل سیستمی عوامل تأثیرگذار بر بحران آب در حوضه آبخیز زاینده رود

1. Introduction

In such a way that today this basin has been severely affected by the consequences of the water crisis and has created a chaotic situation in the basin and has led to social reactions and protests, and in terms of climate and environment, lack of rainfall and drought. Consecutive years in the basin have increased the scope of the water crisis, the pressures arising from the lack of water in various sectors have become more widespread and have created threats at the basin level and on a national scale. The lack of interaction and communication of the subsystems caused by the water crisis, which is one of the important causes of the instability of water resources in the basin, together with the ineffective management pattern, the gap in the water governance of the basin, the unfair distribution of water resources, the unsystematic growth of the population, etc. has increased in the basin and has caused problems for the stability of settlements and human societies. Considering that today the water crisis in the Zayandeh Rood catchment area is increasing and various effective factors are involved in this process, the issue of water crisis in the Zayandeh Rood catchment area has become much more complicated than in the past. Therefore, the current research aims to investigate and analyze the problem of water crisis in this basin with the method of systemic analysis. In this regard, by asking the question, what are the factors affecting the water crisis in Zayandeh Rood catchment area? He has identified the factors affecting the water crisis in the Zayandeh River catchment and the constituent factors of each of these factors and analyzed these factors with a systematic approach using a descriptive-analytical method.

2. Research Methodology

In terms of methodology, the present research is quantitative-qualitative, and in terms of results, it is among applied and exploratory researches. In order to identify the factors influencing the water resources crisis in the Zayandeh Rood watershed, this research has chosen the system thinking approach. To carry out this research, at the beginning with a library study of the factors influencing the water resource crisis in the Zayandeh Rood catchment area, then the accuracy of the identified factors was checked through a survey (interview with experts). In this stage, some of the identified factors were removed, some were added, and some factors were merged. Next, to determine the importance of the identified factors, a researcher-made questionnaire was used. The validity of the questionnaire was confirmed by an expert panel. A quantitative sample was considered including 28 experts related to the subject who were selected by purposive sampling. The completed questionnaires were checked with the help of FBMW and FARAS models, and in the end, system dynamics and system thinking approaches were used to show the relationships between the identified variables. For this purpose, Vensim version 6.4 EX32 software was used.

3. Results and discussion

The water crisis in the Zayandeh Rood watershed has had many consequences at the national and international levels. This issue shows that today water in this basin is involved in regional and sectoral competitions more than other vital resources. So, with the drying up of Zayandeh River and the Gaukhoni wetland, the most important damages and consequences of which are directed at local residents, including farmers and their crops, it has caused some economic, social, environmental and even security crises in this basin.

In the meantime, many studies have been conducted on the water crisis in the Zaindehroud catchment area, the most important of which are Talebi Soumesarai et al. (2013), Zakari Mahabadi et al. Tetah and Salehian (1399), Ismaili (1399), Ziaei (1393), Salehian and Rahmani Fazli (1397) mentioned. Despite the fact that these studies have considered the situation of water resources in the Zayandeh Rood catchment as critical; They have raised the risk of environmental sustainability and human life due to water shortage in the Zayandeh River basin and showed the situation of underground water resources, destruction of natural resources and environmental damage caused by the water crisis, the social, economic, geographical and management situation of the basin is unfavorable.

4. Conclusion

Therefore, today this issue has emerged as a major challenge at the local and national level, which has involved the situation of water resources in the Zayandeh Rood watershed due to human activity and climate change. So, the situation facing the water resources in the mentioned basin has become the main concern of the people and agents of the basin, which basically threatens the life and survival of these communities. Based on such characteristics and identifiers, investigating the critical situation of water resources in the Zaindeh Rood watershed requires systemic thinking in order to gain a more comprehensive understanding of the water structure in this watershed. In this regard, the researchers of the current research have established the foundation of their research in such a way that in the critical situation of water resources in the Zayandeh Rood watershed, they can benefit from systemic thinking, which has been less discussed in the water crisis literature. For this purpose, after identifying the components and factors affecting the critical situation of water resources in Zayandeh Rood catchment and understanding that all the factors with different intensity and weakness but affecting the critical situation of water resources in the mentioned catchment are effective as a single system. It has ranked these components and factors. The conclusion of the results of this ranking showed that the political and legal component had the greatest impact and the natural-environmental component had the least impact on the water crisis in the Zayandeh Rood catchment. And the three factors of lack of proper governance structure and inefficient management of water resources in the catchment basin, the activity of water industries in the catchment basin and the high volume of virtual water export are the most effective factors on the critical situation of water resources in the Zayandeh Rood catchment basin.