ارزیابی چارچوب تاب‌آوری معیشتی در برابر تغییرات اقلیمی (محدوده مورد مطالعه: روستاهای منطقه گردشگری سامان)

Introduction: During recent years, drought and climate change in Chahar Mahal and Bakhtiari province have been among the natural hazards, whose hidden effects have been revealed due to the extent and scope of their influence in recent years. Among them, the biggest burden of climate change is borne by rural communities as the main consumers of water resources in the study area. Farmers are particularly vulnerable to these climate changes because they are heavily dependent on agriculture and have limited capacities to adapt. The continuous vulnerability of villagers to natural hazards and livelihood insecurity requires the identification of measures that increase the resilience of their agriculture-based livelihoods. Without understanding how to secure their livelihoods against adverse socio-ecological dynamics, especially due to climate change, the collapse of their livelihoods is likely to become more entrenched (Gong et al., 2020). Indeed, understanding their capacity to cope with these shocks is essential in order to reduce them and contribute to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). In this regard, the current research was conducted with the aim of evaluating the resilience of the livelihood of the villagers of Saman tourism area against climate change.

Research Methodology

Based on the purpose, this research is of the type of applied research and its method is descriptive-analytical. The statistical population of this research is the rural households of Saman County, therefore, among the 23 villages of Saman County, 11 villages (which were among the tourism target villages of Saman region) were randomly selected. The number of households in these 11 villages was 4519, and based on the Cochran formula, the number of samples was 354 households. The tool used to collect information was a researcher-made questionnaire. In this research, in order to evaluate the livelihood resilience of villagers, the conceptual framework of Speranza (2014) has been used as a model. For this purpose, 3 main criteria of buffer capacity, self-organization and learning capacity have been used. In order to check the reliability of the questionnaire in this research, Cronbach's alpha method was used, and the reliability value of the total research indicators was equal to 0.824, which is acceptable according to the standard value. In order to analyze the findings of the research, Mean, one sample T test and ANOVA tests were used in the SPSS software.



Discussion and Results

The model used to evaluate livelihood resilience in this research is the model of Speranza (2014) and Quandt (2018). In the following, each dimension of resilience has been examined.

self-organization: In order to evaluate the quality of self-organization, 5 main indicators have been used in the form of 17 items. One-sample T-test has been used to evaluate each of the items and indicators of the research. In this way, according to the use of the 5-point Likert spectrum and placing the number 3 as the average population, the mean of each item and index is compared with the average population and the difference between the sample mean and the population mean. Based on the results obtained in the studied villages, the highest averages belong to the index of " reciprocity" and "rules and norms (institutions)" with an average of (3.7571). The lowest average among the items is related to "cooperation" and "self-reliance" index with an average of less than 3. According to the (sig) value, the difference between the mean of all self-organization index items and the community mean is significant with a coefficient of 99%.

learning Capacity: In order to measure the learning capacity, 9 main indicators have been used in the form of 16 items. According to the results of the test among the items, the item " Knowledge transfer capability" has obtained the highest average (3.76). Also, the average index of " Knowledge of threats and opportunities" is higher than average. Except for the mentioned two indicators, 7 other indicators had an average below the average and it shows the weakness of these indicators in the studied area.

Buffer capacity: According to the average obtained from all indicators of "tolerance capacity" of social capital, it has obtained the highest score with an average of 3.96. The average of two indicators of environmental capital with 3.86 and human capital with 3.24 is higher than the average. According to the respondents, the average of other livelihood capital indicators, including economic capital, physical capital, and institutional capital, is below average. The average total of social capital indicators, which shows the bearing capacity, is equal to 3.10.



Conclusion

The results show that the livelihood resilience of the rural residents of Saman County fluctuates a lot. But in general, local people have shown very low satisfaction in most indicators. The only index of " Buffer capacity" that has been measured using livelihood capital was significantly higher than "self-organization", "learning capacity" and "diversity" in terms of the 4 main components of livelihood resilience, which social capital in " Buffer capacity " is the most important sub-component. The average of the two indicators "learning capacity" and "self-organization" in the villages did not have a favorable situation. Both of these indicators have a less than optimal average. According to the issues raised for each of these two indicators, government institutions have the main role to improve the situation of these two indicators, which unfortunately, as mentioned in the institutional funds, did not perform well. Therefore, the general result of the assessment of livelihood resilience in the villages of Saman county shows that despite the existence of important capitals such as social, human and environmental capital, the status of other indicators of livelihood resilience is not in a favorable state. Therefore, for the optimal use of livelihood funds, the support of government organizations along with long-term plans and ideas and solving their conflicts can be of great help.