مدل‌سازی سهم اهمیت شاخص‌های اقلیمی و نمایه‌های تغییر اقلیم مؤثر بر گردوغبار یزد

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 عضو هیئت علمی بخش تحقیقات بیابان موسسه تحقیقات جنگلها و مراتع کشور ،سازمان تحقیقات ،آموزش و ترویج کشاورزی ، تهران، ایران.

2 عضو هیئت علمی بخش تحقیقات بیابان موسسه تحقیقات جنگلها و مراتع کشور

چکیده

در این مقاله به منظور تعیین سهم عوامل اقلیمی موثر بر رخداد گردوغبار از دادههای مربوط به پارامترهای هواشناسی و شاخص‌های اقلیمی و برخی از نمایه های تغییر اقلیم استفاده شده است. نمایه‌های تغییر اقلیم با استفاده از نرم‌افزارClimPACT در محیط برنامه نویسی R 2.10 محاسبه شدند. در این تحقیق گردوغبارهای داخلی و خارجی از هم تفکیک و سپس به منظورتعیین سهم اهمیت هریک از عوامل در رخداد انها از اجراهای مختلف شبکه‌ عصبی پرسپترون چند لایه استفاده گردید. در این بررسی70 درصد داده‌ها به عنوان داده‌ی آموزشی و30 درصد داده‌ها به عنوان داده‌ی تست وارد شبکه گردید. جهت ارزیابی دقت توابع مختلف، مجموع مربعات خطای داده‌های آموزشی، مجموع مربعات خطای داده‌های تست، خطای نسبی داده‌های آموزشی، خطای نسبی داده‌های تست و همچنین ضریب همبستگی بین مقادیر اندازه‌گیری شده و تخمین‌زده شده رخداد گردوغبار و عوامل اقلیمی با یکدیگر مقایسه گردید و در نهایت مدلی که کمترین میزان خطا و بیشترین ضریب همبستگی را نشان داد، به عنوان مدل بهینه انتخاب شد. نتایج نشان داد؛ 77 درصد گردوغبارها با منشاء خارج از ایستگاه و 33 درصد با منشاء اطراف ایستگاه ثبت شده است. . عامل متوسط حداقل رطوبت، بارش موثر و فراوانی رخداد باد و دو روز مرطوب متوالی به ترتیب بیشترین سهم اهمیت را در رخداد گردوغبارهای خارجی داشته‌اند.در رخداد گردوغبارهای داخلی و یا با منشاء اطراف ، متوسط رطوبت وسرعت باد 6 متربرثانیه، خشکسالی SPEIو باد با سرعت 15 متر بر ثانیه به ترتیب اهمیت قرار دارد.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Modeling the contribution of the importance of climate indicators and climate change indices affecting Yazd dust

نویسندگان [English]

  • Fatemeh Dargahian 1
  • samaneh Razavizadeh 2
1 Research institute of Forests and Rangelands, Agricultural Research, Education and Extension Organization (AREEO), Tehran, Iran
2 Research Institute of Forests and Rangelands, Agricultural Research Education and Extension Organization
چکیده [English]

Although most dust storms, especially those prevailing in Iran, are often regional in nature, But local centers dust, the dust belt and specifically in Iran, played a significant role. One of the origins of local dust in this belt is Yazd city and salt domes northeast of Ardakan. Understanding the characteristics of dust storms is important in terms of type, frequency, location and time of occurrence. Due to the dry climatic conditions and strong and erosive winds on it, the city of Yazd is faced with various dust events every year, which causes significant damage to the economic and biological resources of the city. In addition to climatic parameters and indicators, some indicators reveal that climate change can also affect the course of changes in dust occurrence. In addition to climatic parameters and indicators, some indicators reveal that climate change can also affect the process of change in the occurrence of dust in order to identify these indicators from the software ClimPACT is based on RClimDEX software and runs in R 2.10 software environment. In addition to identifying the trend of dust changes, the purpose of this study is to determine the importance of each factor affecting the occurrence of dust in Yazd. For this purpose, analysis and comparison of different functions of neural network, multilayer perceptron was used and finally the model with the least error rate and the highest correlation coefficient, as the optimal model to investigate the share of climatic factors affecting the occurrence of dust originating around and outside the station was estimated based on the optimal model. The occurrence of internal and external dust (dependent variable) was modeled and analyzed and the most important determining factors in the occurrence of internal and external dust were determined

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Internal and external dust
  • wind corridor
  • fine sediments
  • Neural network models
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