تحلیل فضایی خطر زلزله در مناطق خشک ایران با رویکرد استقرار پایدار جمعیت (مطالعه موردی استان خراسان جنوبی)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشگاه خوارزمی تهران

2 دانشگاه تهران- دانشکده جغرافیا - گروه جغرافیای سیاسی

چکیده

با توجه به‌واقع شدن کشور ما بر روی کمربند زلزله‌خیز آلپ-هیمالیا و وجود گسل‌های فراوان، وقوع زلزله در این فلات امری طبیعی است و باید این حقیقت را مدنظر داشت که 66 درصد از مساحت کشور ما در مناطق زلزله‌خیز واقع‌شده و 90 درصد از جمعیت کشور ما در این مناطق زندگی می‌کنند برای کاهش خسارات زلزله مکان‌های با خطر لرزه‌ای بالا شناسایی شوند. در این مطالعه خطر زمین‌لرزه در استان خراسان جنوبی بر اساس روش برآورد و پهنه‌بندی شده است. به‌منظور اجرای این روش ابتدا 7 چشمه (محدوده) بالقوه لرزه زا در منطقه بر اساس فراوانی زلزله‌ها و نوع گسل‌ها شناسایی و در نرم‌افزار Arc GIS تعیین حدود و به‌صورت یک‌لایه تعریف گردیده‌اند. داده‌های زلزله به‌صورت یکنواخت، از زمین‌لرزه‌هایی که شامل 5 زمین‌لرزه تاریخی و 486 زمین‌لرزه دستگاهی از سال 1900 – 2015 می‌باشد، استفاده‌شده است. داده‌های زلزله‌ منطقه وارد نرم‌افزار ZMAP شده و پیش‌لرزها پس‌لرزه‌ها زلزله‌های با بزرگای Mw < 3.5 از کاتالوگ مدنظر حذف گردید سپس توسط رابطه گوتنبرگ – ریشتر مقادیر a و b محاسبه و در ادامه با استفاده از نرم‌افزار KIJKO 2001، مقادیر β و λ و بیشینه بزرگی مورد انتظار (Mmax) محاسبه شد و در گام آخر شتاب حاصل از فعالیت چشمه‌ها با استفاده از نرم‌افزار EZ-FRISK 7.52 و برای دوره بازگشت‌های 50، 100، 475، 1000 و 2475 سال تخمین زده شد. بر اساس نتایج به‌دست‌آمده، بخش شرقی و غربی استان خراسان جنوبی نسبت به نقاط دیگر لرزه‌خیزتر می‌باشند. نقشه‌های ریز پهنه‌بندی و گسل‌های منطقه به‌صورت لایه‌های مختلف در محیط GIS تعریف گردیده‌اند

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Spatial Analysis of Earthquake Risk in Arid Regions of Iran Using Sustainable Population Approach (Case Study: South Khorasan Province)

نویسندگان [English]

  • morad delalat 1
  • Seyed Abbas Ahmadi 2
  • loghman mostafapoor 1
1 univercity kharazmi
2 Tehran University- Geography Faculty- political Geography Group
چکیده [English]

Due to the fact that our country is located on the Alps-Himalayan earthquake belt and there are many faults, the occurrence of this earthquake on this plateau is a natural thing to take into account the fact that 66% of our land area is located in earthquake zones and 90% of the country's population. We live in these areas to identify high risk seismic sites to reduce earthquake damage. In this study, earthquake hazard in south Khorasan province is estimated and zoned based on probabilistic method. In order to implement this method, 7 potential seismic springs in the area were first identified based on the frequency of earthquakes and fault types and defined in Arc GIS software and defined as single layer. Earthquake data uniformly used earthquakes consisting of 5 historical earthquakes and 486 earthquakes from 1900 to 2015. The earthquake data were entered into ZMAP software and the aftershocks and aftershocks as well as earthquakes witcalculated by the Gutenberg-Richter relation of values a and b. Then, using the KIJKO 2001 software, the values of β, λ and expected maximum value (Mmax) were calculated and in the final step the acceleration of the springs activity using EZ-FRISK 7.52 software for the period Returns of 50, 100, 475, 1000, and 2475 years were estimated. According to the results, the eastern and western parts of South Khorasan province are more seismic than other parts. Mapping maps and faults of the region are defined as different layers in GIS environment.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Spatial Analysis
  • Sustainable Population Settlement
  • Land Planning
  • South Khorasan
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