تحلیل الگوی توسعه فیزیکی شهرهای نواحی بیابانی با رویکرد آینده نگاری (مطالعه موردی: شهر یزد)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری جغرافیا و برنامه‌ریزی شهری، دانشگاه زنجان، زنجان، ایران

2 دانشگاه زنجان

چکیده

شهرنشینی شتابان شهرها و ظرفیت محدود آن­ها، توجه به سناریو نگاری را در قالب توسعه فیزیکی شهر بیش‌ازپیش ضروری ساخته است. در این راستا تحقیق حاضر با هدف تبیین الگوی توسعه فیزیکی شهر یزد با رویکرد آینده­نگاری در تلاش است که روند توسعه شهر را در مسیر صحیحی هدایت کند. نوع تحقیق حاضر ازنظر هدف کاربردی و ازنظر گردآوری داده­ها، توصیفی- تحلیلی بوده است. در این پژوهش به‌منظور بررسی چگونگی رشد و توسعه فیزیکی شهر یزد از مدل هلدرن و برای بررسی وضعیت­های محتمل توسعه در آینده از رویکرد آینده­نگاری استفاده‌شده است. بدین منظور از نرم­افزار میک مک برای بررسی عملکرد شاخص­ها و برای بیان وضعیت­های محتمل توسعه فیزیکی شهر یزد در افق 1410 اقدام به تحلیل عوامل کلیدی در محیط سناریو ویزارد شده است. نتایج تحقیقات بر اساس محاسبات مدل هلدرن نشان می­دهد که حدود 83/39 درصد رشد شهر یزد در فاصلۀ سال­های 1355 تا 1395 بر اثر رشد افقی و حدود 16/60 درصد مابقی توسعۀ شهر ناشی از رشد جمعیت شهر بوده است. عوامل کلیدی در محیط سناریو ویزارد بیانگر سه نوع سناریو (سناریو قوی:4 سناریو، سناریو ضعیف: 1580 سناریو و سناریو محتمل: 16 سناریو) بوده است. سناریوهای محتمل با 128 حالت دارای سه وضعیت (مطلوب، ایستا و بحرانی) بوده­اند که وضعیت مطلوب با 10 سناریو، محتمل­ترین سناریوی پیش­روی آینده توسعه فیزیکی شهر یزد تشخیص داده‌شده است.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Analysis of the pattern for physical development of desert cities by the prospective approach: A case study of the city of Yazd

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mohhammad Rasoli 1
  • Mina Shirmohhamadi 2
1 PhD Student in Geography and Urban Planning, Zanjan University, Zanjan, Iran
2 PhD Student in Geography and Urban Planning, Zanjan University, Zanjan, Iran
چکیده [English]

Accelerated urbanization of cities and their limited capacity have made it increasingly necessary to focus on scenario writing for the purpose of urban physical development. In this regard, the present study aims to explain the physical development pattern in the city of Yazd with a prospective approach. It seeks to steer the city's development process in the right direction. In terms of purpose, the study is an applied one, and, in terms of data collection, it is descriptive-analytical. In order to investigate the physical development of Yazd through the Holderen model and the McMake software, the effective indicators have been identified in the development process of the city. Finally, in order to predict the possible physical development status of Yazd up to 2031, the key factors were analyzed in the wizard scenario software. As the results of the research show, based on the calculations in the Holderen model, about 39.83 percent of the city growth occurred from 1977 to 2017 due to the horizontal growth of the city, and about 60. 16 percent of the development was due to the population growth. The key factors in the wizard scenario software represent three types of scenarios including four strong scenarios, 158 weak scenarios and 16 possible scenarios. The possible scenarios with 128 states are in three situation including optimal, static, and critical conditions. Of these, the optimal situation with 10 states is identified as the most likely one for the future of Yazd physical development.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Prospection
  • Physical development
  • Scenario
  • Yazd
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