Iran’s border closure policy with Afghanistan and its geopolitical implications for Iran’s national security

Iran’s border closure policy with Afghanistan and its geopolitical implications for Iran’s national security

Introduction:The eastern border of the Islamic Republic of Iran with Afghanistan, due to its geopolitical position and its role in connecting security, economy, and regional politics, is considered one of the country’s most sensitive borders. In recent decades, this border has been affected by threats such as drug trafficking, illegal migration, trans-border insecurity, and political developments in Afghanistan; therefore, the policy of border closure and physical reinforcement has been adopted as one of the main tools for border security management. However, border closure is not solely a security measure, and its consequences may also encompass extensive economic, social, and geopolitical effects. Since the Iran–Afghanistan border, in addition to its security function, serves as a setting for economic interactions, social ties, and cultural relations, any change in the border regime can significantly affect the livelihoods of local communities, patterns of cross-border interaction, and bilateral relations. Accordingly, this study, using a geopolitical approach and drawing on both quantitative and qualitative data, undertakes a multidimensional analysis of Iran–Afghanistan border closure policy. It seeks to examine the short-term security effects of this policy, evaluate its economic and social consequences in the long run, and explain the extent to which it can contribute to sustainable security and the provision of Iran’s national security.

Methodology: This study was conducted with an applied-developmental approach and a descriptive-analytical design to examine the phenomenon of the closure of Iran’s eastern border. Given the complexity and multidimensional nature of the subject, which involves security, economic, social, cultural, geopolitical, and infrastructural factors, a mixed-methods approach was adopted. The statistical population of the quantitative phase consisted of 141 security and geopolitical experts selected through purposive sampling. Data were collected using a researcher-made questionnaire comprising 28 Likert-scale items organized into five dimensions: economic, security-defense, social, environmental, and geopolitical-infrastructural. The questionnaire was developed based on a review of the scientific literature and preliminary semi-structured interviews with experts, and after being reviewed and approved by academics and specialists, it was finalized. A section on demographic information was also included in the questionnaire. In addition, preliminary semi-structured interviews with experts and document analysis were used as part of the qualitative and exploratory phase of the study. For data analysis, the quantitative data were processed using SmartPLS and Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) with a Partial Least Squares (PLS) approach. This method was selected because it allows for the analysis of complex relationships among variables, the assessment of construct validity and reliability, model fit, and hypothesis testing. The analyses included evaluation of convergent and discriminant validity, construct reliability, and the examination of path coefficients (β), p-values, and t-statistics.

Discussion and Results: This research, using a mixed-methods approach, has examined various dimensions of Iran's eastern border closure policy through questionnaires, interviews, and official documents. Quantitative results indicated that regional geopolitics and physical geography are the most significant factors in border closure, while border economy has dual consequences, and social cohesion is vital for the policy's sustainability. The research model exhibits favorable fit and high explanatory power, with "regional geopolitics" being considered the strongest predictor of eastern border closure. Interview analysis revealed four key themes: weak governance, the impact of regional insecurities, the critical role of local community participation, and environmental consequences. Furthermore, a significant gap was observed between the national (security-focused) and local (socio-economic) perspectives. The findings emphasize that a purely security and military approach is not sustainable, and long-term success requires an integrated, multidimensional approach encompassing economic development, strengthening social cohesion, and environmental considerations, as sustainable border security is a result of the interaction between the state, the local community, and the environment.

Conclusion: This research, using a mixed-methods approach, has analyzed the Iran-Afghanistan border closure policy from a geopolitical perspective and examined its implications for national security. The findings revealed that border closure is a multilayered phenomenon influenced by geographical, geopolitical (particularly Afghan developments), economic, social, and environmental factors. Structural equation modeling demonstrated high explanatory power for the constructs, especially regional geopolitics. Interviews uncovered themes such as weak governance, the necessity of closure in response to threats, the importance of border residents' participation, and environmental and livelihood consequences. Additionally, a significant gap was observed between national (security-oriented) and local (livelihood, social) perspectives. Ultimately, the research emphasizes that border closure will not be sustainable if it neglects developmental, social, economic, environmental dimensions, and regional cooperation, asserting that national security in border areas results from the interaction between the state, the local community, and the environment.