Analysis of Key Drivers Affecting the Resilience of Local Communities in Mashhad County against Climate Change Using a Futuristic Approach

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

Department of Geography and Rural Planning, Faculty of Humanities, University of Zanjan, Zanjan, Iran

10.22034/grd.2025.23655.1667

Abstract

1. Introduction

In recent years, the intensity and frequency of natural disasters worldwide have increased, indicating the high vulnerability of rural areas. A significant portion of these events is influenced by a phenomenon known as climate change. Climate change, recognized as one of the major environmental challenges of the 21st century, is caused by human factors such as greenhouse gas emissions from the use of non-renewable energy sources, as well as natural factors. This phenomenon affects not only the environment but also the social and economic dimensions of human life. Developing countries, due to their greater dependence on sectors like agriculture, are more vulnerable to climate change, while the issue has yet to find a prominent place in their environmental and economic policymaking. This situation has placed pressure on governments globally to take effective measures for adaptation and mitigation of climate change impacts. In this context, the concept of resilience has emerged as a modern approach to dealing with natural disasters and climate change. Strengthening community resilience against climate hazards is a fundamental necessity for reducing vulnerability and increasing recovery capacity. Among the effective approaches in planning and enhancing the resilience of rural settlements is futures studies. This approach, by identifying key drivers and development forces, enables the analysis of uncertainties and outlines possible future scenarios. Over the past two decades, the villages of Mashhad County have faced climate-related crises such as drought and water scarcity, resulting in reduced agricultural production, migration, urban marginalization, and economic instability. The heavy reliance on agriculture has reduced the flexibility of these communities and increased their vulnerability. This study aims to identify the key drivers influencing the resilience of local communities against climate change, emphasizing the importance of futures studies as a tool for improving living conditions, public health, and sustainable development in the region. Accordingly, the research seeks to answer the fundamental question: What are the key drivers that enhance the resilience of local communities in the face of climate change?



2. Research Methodology

This study, based on its objective, falls under the category of applied-developmental research. In terms of its nature, it is both analytical and exploratory. The research methodology is grounded in the modern discipline of foresight, employing a structural-analytical approach through a combination of quantitative and qualitative models. With a foresight-oriented perspective, the study seeks to identify the most influential factors contributing to the enhancement of local community resilience against climate change in Mashhad County, and to assess both the extent and nature of their impact. To collect relevant variables and indicators, interviews were conducted with 19 experts well-versed in the subject and professionals responsible for rural development in Mashhad County, including representatives from the Agricultural Jihad Organization, Housing Foundation, village councils, rural water and wastewater authorities, and the Rural Cooperative Organization. A semi-structured questionnaire was then designed and distributed in multiple stages using the environmental scanning method among selected experts—specialists in the research field and rural managers. These experts were asked to identify the most critical resilience factors for local communities in Mashhad County, based on the components evaluated during the assessment phase. The questionnaire was structured as a cross-impact matrix with the following dimensions: 19×19 for governmental support, 19×19 for economic factors, 28×28 for social factors, 9×9 for institutional-managerial factors, 12×12 for physical-infrastructural factors, and 28×28 for environmental factors. Experts were asked to rate the influence of each factor on others using a scale from 0 to 3. The average scores were calculated and entered into the MICMAC software, which generated the final outputs—namely, the key drivers. The validity of the questionnaire was confirmed by experts, and its reliability was tested using statistical indicators and double data rotation. The results demonstrated a high level of consistency and optimization, indicating strong reliability of the questionnaire and its responses.



3. Results and discussion

Using a quantitative foresight method and structural equation modeling (MicMac), the influence and dependency of identified factors were assessed. Based on the matrices related to social, economic, physical-infrastructural, environmental, institutional-managerial, and governmental support indicators, the fill rate ranged from 75% to 100%, indicating strong interconnections among the selected factors. Out of 2,182 evaluable relationships, 333 had a value of zero, meaning the factors neither influenced nor were influenced by each other. 453 relationships had a value of one, indicating weak influence; 750 had a value of two, showing moderately strong influence; and 849 had a value of three, reflecting very strong and frequent interactions among key factors. Additionally, 130 relationships were marked with a “P” value, representing potential and indirect connections (Table 1). Overall, after analyzing each indicator and identifying both direct and indirect key influencing factors, 14 main drivers were selected from among the 115 examined factors as the core elements shaping the future resilience of local communities in the county.



4. Conclusion

Identifying the most influential factors affecting resilience is one of the key processes for achieving sustainable development goals. Given that planning for the resilience of local communities depends on various factors and conditions, this study aimed to evaluate and assess the most relevant elements involved in resilience planning for local communities in Mashhad County using an environmental scanning approach based on expert perspectives. The collected data and identified factors were first weighted through expert input using the MicMac structural analysis software, and the interrelationships among these factors were examined. As a result, the most prominent and influential drivers were extracted. Findings revealed that out of 115 evaluated factors, 14 core drivers play the most significant and positive role in shaping the future resilience of local communities in Mashhad County. These drivers stand out in terms of their influence on other factors and, therefore, can be considered the key elements shaping the future outlook of community resilience in Mashhad County by the year 2031.

Keywords

Main Subjects

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The Journal of Geographical Research on Desert Areas
Volume 12, Issue 2
March 2025
Pages 171-206

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