Explanation the drivers of evolution of the Land Use & Land Cover System Study Case: Koohpayeh-Segzi Sub-basin in the Central Iran basin

Earth is considered as the base of all human activities and one of the effective institutions in production systems and achieving sustainable development. With the occurrence of social and economic changes in human societies and unconventional exploitation of resources, the unstable conditions of the earth are intensified. Optimum exploitation of natural resources and preservation of the environment and the role of rural areas in the production of agricultural products are essential because the sustainable development of the land depends on the stability of the rural system as a sub-system of the land system. The land use and land cover system is one of the most effective parts in linking with the stability of settlements and an important component in understanding the interaction of human activities with the environment. LULC system changes and transformations beyond the ability have an important role in the beginning of land degradation and to minimize its adverse consequences, management measures compatible with the environment should be implemented. In the spatial territory of this research, in the last two decades, built-up lands have increased by more than 97%, and this increase in area is due to the transfer and change in the classes of barren lands, pasture lands, agricultural lands and vegetation and water fields. Also, in recent years, the extent of barren lands has increased and the extent of pasture and agricultural lands and vegetation is decreasing. Today, the loss of these areas in urban fringe areas is a prominent issue and a fundamental challenge, because the unsustainable and unsustainable exploitation of land and unfavorable LULC developments can have consequences. Economic, social and environmental irreparable changes such as changes in the quality of underground water resources, changes in hydrological processes, threats to ecological security, and the spread of common diseases between humans and animals such as coronaviruses for human societies. In this regard, it is clear that under any conditions, the earth remains forever and if such developments lead to the creation of undesirable effects, and in other words, its destructive and negative effects are more than constructive and positive effects, it acts as a wave effect and all Activities and dimensions will be affected in a systematic way and will eventually lead to the weakening and destruction of various species.

Today, the future analysis of the land use and land cover systems is increasingly necessary for spatial planning tools, because according to the models presented from the results of these studies and when, why and what changes may occur in the future, decision makers can plan land use more efficiently, and develop measures to prevent the undesirable future, especially in severe and critical events. Foresight studies help to take a position and determine the methods of dealing with incidents and events because they predict and outline possible and desirable critical trends. And it enables the correct and optimal utilization of resources and opportunities, and by using its methods, it is possible to identify and neutralize the factors that cause disruptions in targeting, programs, and failure to achieve them, and support rural planning. In this regard, one of the basic prerequisites is the explanation of the drivers.

The purpose of this research is to explain the drivers of LULC system Evolution in the study of Koohpayeh-Segzi sub-basin by using future study research methods. In this research, we have achieved the objectives of the study through the combination of fuzzy Delphi method, interaction analysis, and questioning, using open and closed questionnaires, as well as the use of MicMac software.

At first, keeping in mind the spatio-temporal approach of the research, the primary drivers were identified by using library studies and environmental coverage and were validated by receiving experts' opinions. After that, in the first stage of questioning, through an open questionnaire using the Delphi method, the drivers of the research were measured by a group of experts. In the Delphi-fuzzy method, the opinions of the expert group have been received in the form of verbal vocabulary and measured and calculated using triangular fuzzy numbers. In the first stage of questioning and in the third part of the questionnaire, the group of experts, taking advantage of their scientific-research and operational experiences, presented their additional opinions and suggestions in order to improve and improve the research objects, taking into account the spatial-temporal approach of the study, which finally identified 10 effective and important drivers led. At this stage, out of the 46 primary drivers, 26 important drivers were identified. Then, in the second stage, 34 important propellants with values exceeding the acceptable threshold were selected using a questionnaire. At this stage, after receiving opinions and performing calculations, a consensus was reached between the group of experts, and in other words, the values obtained in each item are more than the research threshold. Then, the relationship and effects of 36 important drivers were determined by using the table of mutual effects by a group of experts, and the results were entered into the MIC MAC software environment.

The results of the analysis and output of MICMAC software indicate that the drivers of "weakness in rural planning and management; Weakness in policy making and integrated management of water and land resources; Administrative corruption and gangsterism of related organizations and executives; Inconsistency among related organizations; urban creep; Non-inhibition of change of use laws and abstractness of laws and lack of appropriateness and efficiency with regard to time and place" have been proposed as key drivers affecting the LULC system. Therefore, in order to sustain environmental resources, it is necessary to make future scenarios considering the drivers, and at the same time to revise the policies, review the relevant laws, develop a structured framework in the custodial organizations, basic planning based on needs assessments, and apply optimal management.