Future research of urban poverty in historical contexts with an emphasis on the empowerment approach Research case: historical context of Yazd city

Introduction

In the discussion of sustainable urban regeneration, the empowerment approach has been proposed as one of the newest approaches to face and manage the phenomenon of urban poverty. In the scope of the study, the studies conducted in the old context of Yazd city show that due to problems such as: lack of minimum necessary vehicle access, large extent of dilapidated and abandoned places, reduction of economic efficiency of manual or machine textile workshops, lack of rules and regulations Bright renovation for the reconstruction of dilapidated areas and separation of dilapidated spaces, the weakness of the area in terms of medical facilities, green space, sports, social, economic and cultural problems, as well as the low social status, young people do not consider it a suitable place to live, and that's why they go to new parts. They move and most of the old people stay in the houses of the old part. In case of mass migration of families from Baft or the death of the remaining elderly people, the houses will be handed over to the low-income immigrants who entered Baft. Currently, a major part of the ancient fabric is the shelter of villagers and various ethnic groups, including Arabs and Afghans. This will change the fabric in terms of social, physical and economic spaces, and finally the spatial-spatial construction of the city will face disharmony and imbalance. Therefore, paying attention to this context and the necessity of empowering the urban poor groups and reviving and improving the quality of social life in this space, as well as recognizing the potential values and bringing them into reality in accordance with the functions of modern life with a new method of planning, i.e. future research, is of importance. has a special Therefore, in this research, the most important drivers of urban poverty reduction in the historical context of Yazd city are identified with the future research method, with emphasis on the empowerment approach, as well as the development of possible scenarios.



Research Methodology

The current research, using the future research method, identifies the most important factors affecting the reduction of urban poverty in the historical context of Yazd city, emphasizing the approach of empowerment and compiling future scenarios of this context in the horizon of 2043. This research is applied in terms of purpose, analytical-exploratory in terms of the nature of the research, in terms of descriptive-survey data collection method and mixed (quantitative-qualitative) data analysis. In this research, due to its exploratory nature, the environmental scanning technique and due to the dominant approach of this research, which is prospective research, the Delphi technique has been used to obtain indicators.



Results and discussion

First, with the environmental scanning technique and the Delphi method, 35 primary factors were extracted in 3 different economic, social and managerial fields, and with structural analysis in MikMak software, the degree of influence and effectiveness of the factors, stability and instability of the system, and finally 10 factors as key drivers. They were selected as effective in empowering the historical context in order to reduce urban poverty in the historical context of Yazd. Based on the results obtained from the structural analysis in the Mikmak software, these drivers were respectively: good urban governance, participation in decision-making, government and private investments, urban management's view of empowerment and poverty reduction, management Urban integration, immigration, tenure security, existence of flexible financial systems, improvement of welfare facilities and social capital. In the next stage, in order to develop logical scenarios of the historical context of Yazd city, using the consensus index, two indicators of social capital and the existence of flexible financial systems were obtained as critical uncertainties of the research, and finally, with the method of inductive analysis and the intersection of two critical uncertainties, Three golden, static and critical scenarios were created for the future of the city's historical fabric. Among the three scenarios facing the historical context of Yazd city, this context will face problems in two static and critical scenarios, and only the first scenario can provide the conditions for empowering this context in order to reduce poverty.



Conclusion

The inefficient textures of the cities and the planning to eradicate it, is not separate from paying attention to the economic, cultural and social realities and requires accurate, comprehensive and realistic planning; Therefore, the existing knowledge to face the complex issues and existing poor residents of inefficient tissues need to adopt an efficient approach and decision. Therefore, planning with the future research method, while identifying the best opportunities and identifying the most real threats, increases our readiness to face urban issues, especially the urban poverty that permeates these tissues, to avoid the consequences of disasters. increase in poverty Let's be safe in a city with inefficient and problematic structures; Therefore, according to the obtained key drivers and possible future scenarios, it is necessary to examine all driving factors at different levels and make necessary plans in line with each of these influential forces as well as the obtained scenarios.