passive defense and earthquake risk assessment in urban centers using linear allocation techniques and the weighted and ranked sum method

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Postdoctoral researcher in Geography and Urban Planning, University of Tabriz

2 Professor of Geography & Urban Planning Faculty of Planning and Environmental Sciences , Tabriz University, Iran.

10.22034/grd.2025.22857.1648

Abstract

Introduction

because of cities capital accumulation and high population density, and because of their size compared to other settlements and acccording to forecasts by 2030 they suffer more injuries,about 6 billion of 8.1 population of earth will settle in cities and about two third of these will also live in big cities.many of these big cities will built in the contex of development proocess.The body of cities, as well as the population density and... exposed to risks and injuries from natural disasters.on average,an earthquake of 6 magnitude every year and 7 magnitude every 10 years in country occurs in the meantime of the areas that suffers seriuos injurirs if accident occure.in urban areas, which clarifies the need to implement a crisis plan, and today in the area,risks of using non-operational defensive principles to mitigate risks and optimally guide to essential urban development happen. Tabriz metropolitan area has been the center of settlement and communication and demographic pole of the northwestern region of the country since ancient times and its demographics are the reasons for this choice which makes earthquaks vulnerability analysis inevitable.present article aims 1) expand the risk and vulnerability of municipal areas to facilitate identify crisis area of Tabriz metropolitan from non-operational defender.2) examine vulnerability of municipal areas of Tabriz is propotional to location of the fault lines and how much vulnerability matches reality.

3) analysis of the correspondence of the output results of the models with each other and the reasons for the vulnerability and less vulnerability of municipal Tabriz areas with provision of non-municipal defensive solutions.

Research method

The present study is descriptive - analytical in terms of its functional purpose and its execution method, and four natural components،Physical, social and economic and the indicators in question, in accordance with the objectives and principles of the non-operational urban defender and In conjunction with studies in articles, research projects and... . they were edited. These components are associated with Subgroup indicators ( population block 2015, fault lines and... ) and used as input data for models they are going to be.the following is a collection of components by considering opinion of experinced teachers in planning and earthquake.it was extracted qualitatively and quantitatively and the output of survey of Tabriz in linear allocation techniques and classified sum method were analyzed and finally analysis of output map obtained to compare urban areas in terms of physical development.

Discussion and findings

Based on the linear allocation matrix, we conclude District 2 of Tabriz Metropolitan Municipality first, District 3 second place, District 4 Third, District 7 Fourth, District 6 Fifth, District 8 Sixth,District 1 Municipality ranked seventh, District 5 ranked eighth, District 9 ranked ninth and finally District 10 metropolitan municipality Tabriz ranks tenth with the highest vulnerability. Also, the results of the total weight and classification method shows that It's important the highest value is ranked first and the lowest value is ranked last Which is proportional to the output of the model of District 2 of Tabriz Metropolitan Municipality in first place and Districts 3, 4 and 7 in second place،Districts 6 and 8 ranked third, Districts 1, 5 and 9 ranked fourth, and District 10 with the highest vulnerability was diagnosed fifth.

Conclusion

In this article, the Passive defense and earthquake risk assessment in urban centers using allocation techniques Linearity and method of total weight and classification in the districts of the Metropolitan Municipality of Tabriz analyzed and We're looking at the result of the linear allocation matrix. District 2 of the Metropolitan Municipality. Tabriz city ranked first, District 3 Ranked Second, District 4 ranked third, district 7 ranked fourth, District 6 ranked fifth، District 8 ranked sixth, District 1 municipality ranked seventh, District 5 ranked eighth, District 9 ranked ninth and finally district 10 are ranked tenth with the highest vulnerability. Also the results of the method and sume of the weight and ranking indicates the highest value is ranked first and the lowest value in last place The sum of the weight and the ranking indicates that the highest value is ranked first and the lowest in last which is proportional to the output of the model of District 2 of the Tabriz Metropolitan Municipality in the first place and the value in the last.Districts3, 4and 7 ranked second, Districts 6 and 8 ranked third, Districts 1, 5 and 9 ranked fourth and District 10 with the highest vulnerability was diagnosed in fifth place.So it requires that in appropriate urban development projects and the strengths and weaknesses, opportunities and threats of each municipal area in the dimensions of distribution of users who are involved in risk control and vulnerability reduction is effective review and expansion and development of non-functional and multi-purpose spaces and transmission and Land use change, especially in high-risk areas, adjacent to faults and faults... In the municipal areas.

Keywords

Main Subjects

References

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The Journal of Geographical Research on Desert Areas
Volume 13, Issue 1
May 2025
Pages 69-86

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