تحلیل ساختاری زیست‌پذیری بافت فرسوده شهری با رویکرد آینده‌پژوهی (مطالعه موردی: بافت فرسوده شهر اهواز)

Abstract

In recent decades, the phenomenon of environmental quality decline has overshadowed the historical structures of Iranian cities, threatening their long-term sustainability. The deterioration and degradation of decayed urban areas result from transformations in economic structures, population displacement and replacement, property abandonment and devaluation, rising social issues, and more. Under such conditions, the sense of belonging among residents of these areas diminishes, and not only are their fundamental needs unmet, but both the city and its inhabitants face severe threats of identity crisis, alienation, and disorientation. Consequently, the concepts of "city" and "urban life" are reduced to mere spaces for fulfilling the most basic human material needs (such as food and shelter) at a minimal level. To address this issue, the present study aims to conduct a structural analysis of urban decayed area livability in Ahvaz city using a futures studies approach. This research is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical in terms of nature and methodology. Data and information were collected through documentary and field research methods. A total of 32 variables influencing the future livability of decayed urban areas were identified and analyzed using MICMAC software. The findings indicate that the degree of saturation is 78.04%, highlighting the significant interdependence of factors. Moreover, out of 803 assessable relationships, 163 relationships exhibited strong influence, 178 relationships demonstrated moderate influence, and 292 relationships were non-influential. The analysis of key and influential variables in the study area suggests the instability of these areas in terms of livability, with incompatible constructions and lack of resource allocation and financial support emerging as the most critical factors affecting the livability of the decayed fabric of Ahvaz city.





. Introduction

In recent decades, the phenomenon of environmental quality degradation has cast a shadow over the historical fabric of Iranian cities, threatening their long-term sustainability. The decline and deterioration of aging urban areas have resulted from transformations in economic structures, population displacement and replacement, property abandonment, and declining property values, all of which have exacerbated social problems. Under such conditions, the sense of value and belonging among residents of these areas diminishes, leaving their fundamental needs unmet. Consequently, both the city and its inhabitants face serious threats such as an "identity crisis," "alienation," and "disorientation," reducing the concept of "city" and "urban life" to a mere space for fulfilling the most basic human material needs (such as food and shelter) at a very low level. Therefore, addressing contemporary urban theories—each of which aims to solve urban challenges, improve the qualitative and quantitative aspects of urban life, enhance the urban environment, manage cities more effectively, and guide urban development toward more desirable conditions—has become increasingly significant.

2. Research Methodology

This research follows a descriptive-analytical methodology in terms of goal-setting strategy and approach, while adopting an explanatory framework based on futures studies methods. Theoretical data were collected through documentary research, whereas empirical data were gathered using a survey method based on the Delphi technique. The selection criteria for experts included theoretical proficiency, practical experience, willingness and ability to participate, and accessibility. The number of participating experts ranged from 20 to 25, selected from among urban managers, academic specialists, and research center professionals. Given the complexity of manually calculating the cross-impact matrix, the MICMAC software was utilized for analysis. A total of 32 key factors related to the decayed urban fabric were scored within a 32×32 cross-impact matrix, and the results were presented using graphs and graphical mapping tools generated by MICMAC software.

3. Results and discussion

In this study, structural cross-impact analysis was employed to identify the initial variables influencing the future livability of deteriorated urban fabrics within the study area. Given the dispersed nature and overlapping aspects of urban fabric livability, this method was used to assess the extent and manner of influence among factors and ultimately identify key determinants affecting the livability of deteriorated urban areas. Following a comprehensive literature review on livability factors, 32 variables were identified, and a 32×32 matrix was constructed across four main dimensions. The number of iterations was set to two, and the matrix fill rate was calculated at 78.04%, indicating strong interdependencies and high dispersion among the variables. Moreover, the findings revealed that among the 32 identified variables, incompatible construction practices, lack of resource and loan allocation to deteriorated areas, and impermeability were the most influential key factors impacting the livability of deteriorated urban fabrics. Additionally, variables such as environmental health, education level, and population density were found to be the most affected by future changes in livability within these areas.

4. Conclusion

The results indicate that the matrix fill rate is 78.04%, demonstrating a high level of interdependence among the factors. Additionally, out of 803 evaluable relationships, 163 relationships exhibited strong influence, 178 relationships showed moderate influence, and 292 relationships were non-influential. Consequently, the findings from the analysis of key variables affecting the condition of the deteriorated urban fabric in the study area suggest that these areas are highly unstable in terms of livability. Among the most influential factors impacting the livability of Ahvaz’s deteriorated urban fabric are incompatible construction practices and the lack of resource and loan allocation.